Mark Brown
Mark Brown is a dangerous man to stand next to at a cocktail party.
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PHOTO: Owen Egan |
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As a scholar interested in the integration of the Canadian and American economies, he's an easy target for people wishing to vent their spleen on that most polarizing of subjects: free trade.
"No one's really jumped down my throat yet," he says with a laugh. "But it wouldn't be a surprise. Free trade is a hot topic."
A member of the Departments of Geography and Agricultural Economics, Professor Brown is teaching two courses: "Geography of the World Economy" and "Agricultural, Food and Resource Policy."
Next year he plans to teach "Canada: A Geo-economic Perspective," a course intended to "introduce students to theories as to why economic activity differs over space."
Brown is deeply intrigued by this latter notion: the hows and whys of economic differences (wages, unemployment rates, GDP levels) between geographic regions, be they countries or provinces or something else. It's an interest he traces to growing up in Nova Scotia, "not exactly the richest part of the country.
"At the worst of times," he says, "Cape Breton has an unemployment rate approaching 25 per cent. I became interested in why the region had higher unemployment and lower wages than in, say, Toronto or Vancouver or Calgary."
Brown is just as interested in Atlantic Canada's current economic upswing -- a change he witnesses with an outsider's fresh eyes during his regular visits home.
"Halifax was really rough in the 1990s," he recalls. "But now it's going great guns. There's a lot of apartment and condominium construction downtown. The unemployment rate is around six per cent, which is unheard of."
So what's going on?
The turnaround largely lies in increased industry that is non-traditional by Atlantic Canada standards (read: not fish), including lumber, refined petroleum and rubber. Further, although the region has long been integrated into the New England economy, it is experiencing rapidly increasing trade with other U.S. markets, including the South (Georgia, Florida, Texas) and the Midwest (Michigan, Illinois).
Naturally, this brings us back to the hot button of free trade.
Brown is cautious about playing the role of doomsayer. Or, for that matter, the bearer of unequivocal good tidings. He does allow that the Free Trade Agreement is "one of the most important economic policies that's been implemented in Canada over the past 15 years." Beyond that, he's playing things cool.
"One of the reasons I'm reluctant to say, 'This is a good thing!' and pound my fist on the table," he explains, "is that a lot of work still needs to be done. Trade policies take decades before we fully adjust to them."
Call it nationalist paranoia, call it justifiable concern, call it a little man's complex -- the fact is, Canadians have long worried about becoming just another star on Old Glory. As Brown says, "It's not always easy living next to a giant.
"The more we rely on the U.S. economy, the less we are complete masters of our own economic house." But he's also quick to point out that the U.S. market is just too big to simply ignore.
"Generally speaking, when you trade more with another country, you can specialize in producing goods with which you have a relative advantage. So you become more productive, and that tends to raise incomes in both countries. Basic economic theories of trade indicate that, in general, if you trade more ... you will be better off economically."
Still, one burning question remains: If, as some economists are predicting, the U.S. economy completely tanks, will Canada go down too?
Brown is optimistic about a "soft landing," suggesting that recent developments such as Paul Martin's mini-budget tax breaks will buoy domestic demand enough to offset any negative effect resonating from south of the border.
"In the short run, the U.S. economy might be a drag on the Canadian economy. But the U.S. has probably the most dynamic economy in the world and if I was going to be stuck to a country, I'd rather have the benefit of having the U.S. economy to the south than an economy like Russia's or Japan's which has struggled through the last decade."
Free trade is just as dynamic as it is controversial -- and it's exactly these kinds of questions that Brown loves.
"In some ways the best part of this job is getting out there and discovering something new," he says. "We don't really know how something like the Free Trade Agreement is going to shake out, so one of the fun things is looking at the data -- at what's really going on -- and to see what the story is."
