The eyes of the world are on Hong Kong as authority is transferred from Britain to China. With Chinese soldiers filtering into Hong Kong, French language and literature professor Axel Maugey says the attention is understandable, but a little premature.
"The year to watch is 1998. It will take about a year for people in Hong Kong to have a sense of what this change will mean for them. We'll see if they decide to stay or not."
He notes that of Hong Kong's six million residents, 500,000 have foreign passports. "I would watch the middle class, the young adults and the artists. If we see these groups trying to get out, we'll know things are going badly."
Maugey is the author of a new book, Des Québécois à Hong Kong, that examines life in Hong Kong through the eyes of 14 Quebecers who currently live and work in the former British colony.
Maugey says these people aren't worried about China taking over--at least not about the effect it will have on them. "They say China needs them and the companies they work for as intermediaries to the outside world."
Life in Hong Kong--possibly the most business-friendly city in the world--has influenced the way these Quebecers view their own country.
"They feel that governments in Canada don't do enough to make it easy for businesspeople. In Hong Kong, you pay 15% tax on your salary as opposed to 40% over here. In Hong Kong you can start a business overnight--literally. All the paper work is done within 24 hours."
The most interesting question to be answered about Hong Kong and China, thinks Maugey, is who will have the greatest influence on whom.
"Can you really liberate an economy without offering more freedoms? Will Hong Kong bring China firmly into the capitalist world or will we see China having big problems with the way of life in Hong Kong?"
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